potenties

The S&P 500,^[6] or just the S&P,^[7][8] is an American stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE, NASDAQ, or the Cboe BZX Exchange.

The S&P 500 was developed and continues to be maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices, a joint venture majority-owned by S&P Global. S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes many stock market indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P MidCap 400, the S&P SmallCap 600, and the S&P Composite 1500. David M. Blitzer leads the committee that has overall responsibility for index security selection.^[9] The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index,^[5] and is associated with many ticker symbols, such as: ^GSPC,^[10] INX,^[11], SPY^[12] and $SPX, depending on market or website.^[13] The S&P 500 differs from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (although it includes all 30 companies of the DJIA) and the NASDAQ Composite index, because of its diverse constituency and weighting methodology. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market.^[14]

• 11Market statistics

History[edit]

Standard & Poor's, a company that provides financial information and analysis, was founded in 1860 by Henry Varnum Poor. The 'Composite Index',^[15] as the S&P 500 was first called when it introduced its first stock index in 1923, began tracking a small number of stocks. Three years later in 1926, the Composite Index expanded to 90 stocks and then in 1957 it expanded to its current 500.^[15] In 1941, Poor's Publishing (Henry Varnum Poor's original company) merged with Standard Statistics (founded in 1906 as the Standard Statistics Bureau) and therein assumed the name Standard and Poor's Corporation.^[16] Its primary daily stock market index was the 'S&P 90', a value-weighted index based on 90 stocks. Standard & Poor's also published a weekly index of the stocks of 425 industrial companies.^[17] The S&P 500 index in its present form began on March 4, 1957. Technology has allowed the index to be calculated and disseminated in real time. The S&P 500 is widely used as a measure of the general level of stock prices, as it includes both growth stocks and value stocks.

In September 1962, Ultronic Systems Corp. entered into an agreement with Standard and Poor's. Under the terms of this agreement, Ultronics computed the S&P 500 Stock Composite Index, the 425 Stock Industrial Index, the 50 Stock Utility Index, and the 25 Stock Rail Index. Throughout the market day these statistics were furnished to Standard & Poor's. In addition, Ultronics also computed and reported the 94 S&P sub-indexes.^[18]

Price history[edit]

On August 12, 1982, the index closed at 102.42.^[19] The following describes the ups and downs of the period year 2000 to date.

On March 24, 2000, the index reached an intraday high of 1,552.87, at the peak of the dot-com bubble; a high not to be exceeded for the following seven years. By October 10, 2002, the index had fallen to 768.83, a decline of approximately 50%, during the stock market downturn of 2002^[20] ; before subsequently turning back up.

On May 30, 2007, the S&P 500 closed at 1,530.23, to set its first all-time closing high in more than seven years. Although the index achieved a new all-time intraday high on October 11, 2007, at 1,576.09, following a record close of 1,565.15 on October 9, the index finished 2007 at 1,468.36 points—just below its 1999 annual close. Less than a month later, it dropped to 1,400, and would not see similar levels again for five years.

In mid-2007, the subprime mortgage crisis spread to the wider U.S. financial sector. The resulting situation became acute in September 2008, ushering in a period of unusual market volatility, encompassing record 100-point swings in both directions and reaching the highest levels since 1929.^[21] On November 20, 2008, the index closed at 752.44, its lowest since early 1997.^[22] A modest recovery the following day still left the index down 45.5% for the year. This year-to-date loss was the greatest since 1931, when the broad market declined more than 50%.^[23] The index closed the year at 903.25, for a loss of 38.5%.^[24] The market continued to decline in early 2009, surrounding the financial crisis of 2008. The index reached a nearly 13-year low, closing at 676.53, on March 9, 2009. The entire drop from high in Oct 2007 to low in Mar 2009 was 57.7%, the largest since WWII.

On March 23, 2009, the S&P 500 marked a 20% gain when it hit 822.92.^[25] The Dow Jones Industrial Average soon followed.^[26] The close for 2009 was 1,115.10, making it the second-best year of the decade.^[27] On April 14, 2010 the index broke 1,200 closing at 1,210.65, but by July 2, 2010 it had closed at 1022.58. On April 29, 2011, the index closed at 1,363.61, but it had a sharp drop in August and briefly broke 1,100 in October (with the VIX hitting 40). Gains continued despite significant volatility amid electoral and fiscal uncertainty, and the 2012 close of the S&P 500 following QE3 was its third-highest ever, at 1,426.22 points. On March 28, 2013, it closed above the closing high from 2007.^[28] On April 10, 2013, it also closed above the intraday high from 2007.^[29]

A period of over a year with no new record highs ended on July 11, 2016 (closing at 2,137.16).^[30] In June 2017, the index saw the largest weekly rise since the past presidential election in November 2016.^[31] Rapid growth in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones as well in late 2017 translated to nasty declines in early 2018. A few months later, the S&P 500 fell borderline between correction territory (closing-basis) and bear market territory (intraday-basis). Nonetheless, the index rallied significantly to exit either of the two, but some argued a new high had to be made before that can happen.^[32]

Selection criteria[edit]

The components of the S&P 500 are selected by a committee. This is similar to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but different from others such as the Russell 1000, which are strictly rule-based. When considering the eligibility of a new addition, the committee assesses the company's merit using eight primary criteria: market capitalization, liquidity, domicile, public float, sector classification, financial viability, and length of time publicly traded and stock exchange.^[5] Each of these primary criteria have specific requirements that must be met. For example, in order to be added to the index, a company must satisfy the following liquidity-based size requirements:^[5]

1. Market capitalization must be greater than or equal to $8.2 billion USD
2. Annual dollar value traded to float-adjusted market capitalization is greater than 1.0
3. Minimum monthly trading volume of 250,000 shares in each of the six months leading up to the evaluation date

The committee selects the companies in the S&P 500 so they are representative of the industries in the United States economy. The securities must be publicly listed on either the NYSE (including NYSE Arca or NYSE MKT) or NASDAQ (NASDAQ Global Select Market, NASDAQ Select Market or the NASDAQ Capital Market). Securities that are ineligible for inclusion in the index are limited partnerships, master limited partnerships, OTC bulletin board issues, closed-end funds, ETFs, ETNs, royalty trusts, tracking stocks, preferred stock, unit trusts, equity warrants, convertible bonds, investment trusts, ADRs, ADSs and MLP IT units.^[5]

The index includes non-U.S. companies, both formerly U.S.-incorporated companies that have re-incorporated outside the United States, as well as firms that have never been incorporated in the United States.

Components[edit]

Versions[edit]

The 'S&P 500' generally quoted is a price return index; there are also 'total return' and 'net total return' versions of the index. These versions differ in how dividends are accounted for. The price return version does not account for dividends; it only captures the changes in the prices of the index components. The total return version reflects the effects of dividend reinvestment. Finally, the net total return version reflects the effects of dividend reinvestment after the deduction of withholding tax.^[33][34]

Weighting[edit]

Standard & Poor's now calculates the market capitalization of each company relevant to the index using only the number of shares available for public trading (called the 'float').The index has traditionally been capitalization-weighted; that is, movements in the prices of stocks with higher market capitalizations (the share price times the number of shares outstanding) had a greater impact on the value of the index than do companies with smaller market caps. The transition to float-adjusted capitalization-weighting was made in two steps, the first on March 18, 2005 and the second on September 16, 2005.^[35]

Index maintenance[edit]

In order to keep the S&P 500 Index consistent over time, it is adjusted to capture corporate actions which affect market capitalization, such as additional share issuance, dividends and restructuring events such as mergers or spin-offs. Additionally, to remain indicative of the U.S. stock market, the constituent stocks are changed from time to time.^[5]

To prevent the value of the Index from changing merely as a result of corporate financial actions, all such actions affecting the market value of the Index require a divisor adjustment. Also, when a company is dropped and replaced by another with a different market capitalization, the divisor needs to be adjusted in such a way that the value of the S&P 500 Index remains constant. All divisor adjustments are made after the close of trading and after the calculation of the closing value of the S&P 500 Index. There is a large range of different corporate actions that can require the divisor to be adjusted. These are listed in the table below:^[36]

Calculation[edit]

To calculate the value of the S&P 500 Index, the sum of the adjusted market capitalization of all 500 stocks is divided by a factor, usually referred to as the Divisor.^[36][37] For example, if the total adjusted market cap of the 500 component stocks is US$13 trillion and the Divisor is set at 8.933 billion, then the S&P 500 Index value would be 1,455.28. Although the adjusted market capitalization of the entire index can be accessed from Standard & Poor's website,^[38] the Divisor is considered to be proprietary to the firm. However, the Divisor's value is approximately 8.9 billion.^[39]

The formula to calculate the S&P 500 Index value is:

${\displaystyle \text{Index Level}=\frac{\sum \left(P_i\cdot Q_i\right)}{Divisor}}$

where P is the price of each stock in the index and Q is the number of shares publicly available for each stock.

The divisor is adjusted in the case of stock issuance, spin-offs or similar structural changes, to ensure that such events do not in themselves alter the numerical value of the Index.^[36]

Update frequency[edit]

The index value is updated every 15 seconds during trading sessions and is disseminated by Reuters America, Inc., a subsidiary of Thomson Reuters Corporation.^[40]

Investing[edit]

Many index funds and exchange-traded funds attempt to replicate (before fees and expenses) the performance of the S&P 500 by holding the same stocks as the index, in the same proportions. Many other mutual funds are benchmarked to the S&P 500. Consequently, a company whose stock is added to the list of S&P 500 stocks may see its stock price rise, as index funds must purchase that company's stock in order to continue tracking the S&P 500 index. Mutual fund managers provide index funds that track the S&P 500, the first of which was The Vanguard Group's Vanguard 500 in 1976.^[41]SPY, a unit investment trust, is the oldest and largest ETF as of 2018, while other notable funds include IVV and VOO.^[42]

In addition to investing in a mutual fund indexed to the S&P 500, investors may also purchase shares of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) which represents ownership in a portfolio of the equity securities that comprise the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. These exchange-traded funds track the S&P 500 index and may be used to trade the index.

Investors may also invest in all the stocks of the S&P 500 directly, which is usually called index replication.

In the derivatives market, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offers futures contracts (ticker symbols /SP for the full-sized contract and /ES for the E-mini contract that is one-fifth the size of /SP) that track the index and trade on the exchange floor in an open outcry auction, or on CME's Globex platform, and are the exchange's most popular product. Additionally, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) offers options on the S&P 500 as well as S&P 500 ETFs, inverse ETFs and leveraged ETFs.

Market statistics[edit]

Milestones[edit]

On October 11, 2007, S&P index set a milestone with its all-time intraday high of 1,576.09.^[43] On March 28, 2013, the S&P finally surpassed its closing high level of 1,565.15, recovering all its losses from the financial crisis.^[43] On March 2, 2015, the S&P finally closed at a new all-time inflation-adjusted closing high, though it has yet to achieve a new all-time inflation-adjusted intraday high, both of which were set back in 2000.^[44][45]

Annual returns[edit]

(total return) The CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate, Annualized Return) is the best average rate to summarize investment returns over several years. In contrast with the median return or the mean return, the CAGR is the measurement of the actual return achieved over the number of years being studied.

Calculation used for CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate, Annualized Return):

${\displaystyle \text{CAGR}={\left(\frac{\text{ending value}}{\text{starting value}}\right)}^{\frac{1}{numofyears}}-1}$

The current total rate of return (including dividends) CAGR through 2018 is 10.21%. The rate of return (without dividends, or just on the index price itself) through 2018 is 6.98%.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

1. ^'S&P 500 factsheet'(PDF). Standard & Poor's. Archived(PDF) from the original on August 17, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2013.
2. ^ ^ab'S&P 500 Overview'. S&P/Dow Jones Indices LLC. Archived from the original on January 16, 2013. Retrieved January 20, 2013.
3. ^'S&P Dow Jones Indices Announces Treatment of Stock Dividend for Discovery Communications in S&P 500'(PDF). Spice-indices.com. Archived(PDF) from the original on August 9, 2014. Retrieved December 16, 2017.
4. ^'Dow Jones Indices'(PDF). Us.spindices.com. Archived(PDF) from the original on April 3, 2014. Retrieved December 16, 2017.
5. ^ ^abcdef'S&P U.S. Indices Methodology'(PDF). Standard & Poor's. Archived(PDF) from the original on June 5, 2016. Retrieved December 16, 2017.
6. ^'S&P 500®'. S&P Dow Jones Indices. Archived from the original on January 24, 2019. Retrieved January 24, 2019.
7. ^Reklaitis, Victor (October 30, 2015). 'The S&P is up 9% this month, but these 10 stocks jumped more than 22%'. Marketwatch.com. Archived from the original on November 16, 2018. Retrieved January 24, 2019.
8. ^'The S&P is Flat for the Year, and that Usually Leads to Huge Moves'. Dailyfx.com. December 28, 2015. Archived from the original on December 30, 2015. Retrieved January 9, 2016.
9. ^Ferri, Rick (December 19, 2013). 'An Interview With S&P Dow Jones Index Chief David Blitzer'. Forbes. Archived from the original on May 20, 2018. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
10. ^'Yahoo! Finance: ^GSPC'. Yahoo!. Archived from the original on July 8, 2016.
11. ^'Google Finance: .INX'. Google. Archived from the original on December 17, 2008.
12. ^Olson, Sheila. 'Top 3 ETFs to Track the S&P 500 as of October 2018'. Investopedia. Archived from the original on March 24, 2019. Retrieved March 24, 2019.
13. ^'S&P 500 Index Quote'. MarketWatch. Archived from the original on February 9, 2016. Retrieved February 9, 2016.
14. ^'Standard & Poor's 500 Index – S&P 500'. Investopedia.com. Archived from the original on June 14, 2012. Retrieved June 11, 2012.
15. ^ ^ab'S&P 500 – stock market'. britannica.com. Archived from the original on March 9, 2016. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
16. ^'Penn State WebAccess Secure Login:'. Ezaccess.libraries.psu.edu. Retrieved December 16, 2017.
17. ^Obienugh, J.P. (2010). Jonbull’s Stock Guide: How to Invest Profitably in a Volatile Stock Market. Victoria, BC, Canada: Trafford Publishing. p. 156. ISBN978-1-4269-2664-8.
18. ^Ultronic Systems Corp., Annual Report 1964
19. ^Marotta, D. J., 'Volker's Bear: The Bear Market Of 1982'Archived October 11, 2017, at the Wayback Machine, Forbes, Oct 11, 2017.
20. ^'New High For S&P 500'. ETF.com. August 9, 2007. Archived from the original on September 11, 2014.
21. ^'S&P 500 actual volatility at highest since 1929'. FinanzNachrichten.de. November 21, 2008. Archived from the original on May 27, 2015. Retrieved May 27, 2015.
22. ^Perman, Cindy (November 20, 2008). 'Stocks Plunge, Leaving Dow Below 7600'. CNBC. Archived from the original on December 17, 2017.
23. ^Sommer, Jeff (November 23, 2008). 'A Friday Rally Can't Save the Week'. The New York Times.
24. ^Twin, Alexandra (December 31, 2008). 'Wall Street: Bring on '09'. Market Report. CNNMoney. Archived from the original on April 2, 2015.
25. ^'U.S. Stocks Jump, Capping S&P 500's Best 10-Day Gain Since 1938'. Bloomberg.com. Archived from the original on February 7, 2015. Retrieved May 27, 2015.
26. ^Peter Mckay, Geoffrey Rogow and Rob Curran (March 26, 2009). 'Stocks' Momentum Keeps Building'. The Wall Street Journal. Archived from the original on March 11, 2016. Retrieved April 4, 2013.
27. ^'Wall St closes out '09 with best gains since 2003'. Reuters. December 31, 2009. Archived from the original on December 17, 2017. Retrieved December 16, 2017.
28. ^'S&P 500 Closes At All-Time High'. The Huffington Post. Archived from the original on September 24, 2015. Retrieved May 27, 2015.
29. ^Maureen Farrell (April 10, 2013). 'Dow and S&P 500 close at new record highs'. CNNMoney. Archived from the original on September 24, 2014. Retrieved May 27, 2015.
30. ^Reuters (July 11, 2016). Strong economy, earnings bets propel S&P 500 to record highArchived March 17, 2017, at the Wayback Machine.
31. ^Gold, Riva; Driebusch, Corrie (June 24, 2017). 'U.S. Stocks Notch Weekly Gains'. Wsj.com. Archived from the original on June 25, 2017. Retrieved December 16, 2017.
32. ^DeCambre, Mark. 'Dow and S&P 500 escape correction territory after 5-day stock-market surge'. MarketWatch. Archived from the original on February 3, 2019. Retrieved March 20, 2019.
33. ^'S&P – Indices > Equity Indices – S&P 500 – Index Table'. standardandpoors.com. Archived from the original on January 10, 2007.
34. ^'Description'. standardandpoors.com.
35. ^'Standard & Poor's Announces Changes to U.S. Investable Weight Factors and Final Float Transition Schedule'. PRNewswire. March 9, 2005. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved January 20, 2013.
36. ^ ^abc'S&P Indices Index Mathematics Methodology'(PDF). The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Archived from the original(PDF) on November 6, 2011. Retrieved January 20, 2013.
37. ^'S&P Dow Jones Index Mathematics Methodology'(PDF). Spindices.com. March 2014. p. 6. Archived(PDF) from the original on December 7, 2014. Retrieved December 16, 2017.
38. ^'S&P 500 Details'. Standard & Poor's. Archived from the original on January 16, 2013. Retrieved January 20, 2013.
39. ^'How is the value of the S&P 500 calculated?'. Investopedia.com. Archived from the original on January 3, 2013. Retrieved January 20, 2013.
40. ^'Archived copy'(PDF). Archived from the original(PDF) on March 5, 2016. Retrieved January 13, 2018.CS1 maint: Archived copy as title (link)
41. ^'Investopedia Vanguard Profile'. Investopedia.com. Archived from the original on October 14, 2008. Retrieved December 16, 2017.
42. ^Olson, Sheila. 'Top 3 ETFs to Track the S&P 500 as of October 2018'. Investopedia. Archived from the original on March 24, 2019. Retrieved March 24, 2019.
43. ^ ^abPark, JeeYeon. 'Record-Smashing Quarter: S&P 500 Ends Above 2007's Record Close, Dow Posts Best Q1 Since 1998'. CNBC.com Writer. Archived from the original on April 1, 2013. Retrieved March 28, 2013.
44. ^'CPI Inflation Calculator'. Data.bls.gov. Archived from the original on March 4, 2016. Retrieved September 13, 2015.
45. ^'CPI Inflation Calculator'. Data.bls.gov. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved September 13, 2015.

External links[edit]

• Business data for S&P 500 Index:

I found the raw data here and wondered what conclusions I could draw from it.

I could not discern from that site if the 'annual return' is 'price return', 'dividend return', or 'total return'.

Here are the raw data sorted by year:

The interval between 1928 and 2015 represents 88 calendar years.

Of those 88 years, the S&P 500 went up in 64 years (72.7273%) and went down in 24 years (27.2727%).

The ratio of up years to down years was 64 / 88 or 2.66667, which means the S&P 500 went down once every (approximately) 4 years on average.

Here are the raw data sorted by return:

The worst return was -43.84% in 1931.

The best return was 52.56% in 1954.

Here are the raw data sorted by the frequency of similar returns:

number of losses >= -44% and < -43% is 1

number of losses >= -37% and < -36% is 1

number of losses >= -36% and < -35% is 1

number of losses >= -26% and < -25% is 2

number of losses >= -22% and < -21% is 1

number of losses >= -15% and < -14% is 1

number of losses >= -13% and < -12% is 1

number of losses >= -12% and < -11% is 1

number of losses >= -11% and < -10% is 2

number of losses >= -10% and < -9% is 2

number of losses >= -9% and < -8% is 5

number of losses >= -7% and < -6% is 1

number of losses >= -5% and < -4% is 1

number of losses >= -4% and < -3% is 1

number of losses >= -2% and < -1% is 3

number of gains >= 0% and < 1% is 1

number of gains >= 1% and < 2% is 2

number of gains >= 2% and < 3% is 1

number of gains >= 3% and < 4% is 1

number of gains >= 4% and < 5% is 1

number of gains >= 5% and < 6% is 4

number of gains >= 6% and < 7% is 2

number of gains >= 7% and < 8% is 2

number of gains >= 9% and < 10% is 1

number of gains >= 10% and < 11% is 2

number of gains >= 12% and < 13% is 2

number of gains >= 13% and < 14% is 1

number of gains >= 14% and < 15% is 2

number of gains >= 15% and < 16% is 2

number of gains >= 16% and < 17% is 2

number of gains >= 18% and < 19% is 5

number of gains >= 19% and < 20% is 2

number of gains >= 20% and < 21% is 2

number of gains >= 22% and < 23% is 3

number of gains >= 23% and < 24% is 3

number of gains >= 25% and < 26% is 2

number of gains >= 26% and < 27% is 1

number of gains >= 28% and < 29% is 2

number of gains >= 29% and < 30% is 1

number of gains >= 30% and < 31% is 2

number of gains >= 31% and < 32% is 4

number of gains >= 32% and < 33% is 2

number of gains >= 33% and < 34% is 1

number of gains >= 35% and < 36% is 1

number of gains >= 37% and < 38% is 2

number of gains >= 43% and < 44% is 2

number of gains >= 46% and < 47% is 1

number of gains >= 49% and < 50% is 1

number of gains >= 52% and < 53% is 1

Ups and Downs

After a down year, the following year was a down year 8 times out of 24 (33.33%), and was an up year 16 times out of 24 (66.67%).

After an up year, the following year was a down year 16 times out of 63 (25%), and was an up year 47 times out of 63 (75%).

Streaks

Here are the streaks of consecutive down years:

streak starting in 1973 for 2 consecutive years

streak starting in 1939 for 3 consecutive years

streak starting in 2000 for 3 consecutive years

streak starting in 1929 for 4 consecutive years

Here are the streaks of consecutive up years:

streak starting in 1935 for 2 consecutive years

streak starting in 1967 for 2 consecutive years

streak starting in 1975 for 2 consecutive years

streak starting in 1954 for 3 consecutive years

streak starting in 1978 for 3 consecutive years

streak starting in 1963 for 3 consecutive years

streak starting in 1970 for 3 consecutive years

streak starting in 1942 for 4 consecutive years

streak starting in 1958 for 4 consecutive years

streak starting in 2003 for 5 consecutive years

streak starting in 1947 for 6 consecutive years

streak starting in 2009 for 7 consecutive years

streak starting in 1982 for 8 consecutive years

streak starting in 1991 for 9 consecutive years

Streaks of up years tend to be longer, and occur more frequently, than streaks of down years.

Mean, Standard Deviation, and Compound Annual Growth Rate [CAGR]

The mean return was 11.4122%. This is the simple arithmetic average of all of the returns.

The interpretation of 'average' is not as easy as it looks. Perhaps you've heard the quote from William Kruskal's article, 'Statistics, Moliere, and Henry Adams', American Scientist 55 (1967), p. 416 to 428: 'A man standing with one foot in a bucket of boiling water and the other in a bucket of freezing water would be a ridiculous fool to summarize his experience by saying, 'On the average, I feel fine.'

Suppose you begin with $100. During the first year, you experience a return of +50%, and end up with $150. During the second year, you experience a return of -50%, and end up with $75. It is indeed nonsensical to claim that your 'average' return was 0.

Standard deviation 'is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. A standard deviation close to 0 indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the mean (also called the expected value) of the set, while a high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a wider range of values.'

The standard deviation of S&P 500 returns was 19.7028%.

This means that 68% of the time the S&P 500 return was between the mean +/- one standard deviation (i.e. -8.2906 and 31.115), 95% of the time the S&P 500 return was between the mean +/- two standard deviations (i.e. -27.9934 and 50.8178), and 99.7% of the time the S&P 500 return was between the mean +/- three standard deviations (i.e. -36.284 and 81.9328).

To help you visualize what this means, there is a good diagram here.

The compound annual growth rate [CAGR] answers the question, 'What constant rate of return would take you from the starting value to the ending value over the time interval?'. If you bought $1 worth of S&P 500 at the beginning of 1928, you would end up with $2,940.88 at the end of 2015. The CAGR of S&P 500 returns was 9.5%.

Conclusions

What conclusions can be drawn from these data?

I hesitate to make guesses, estimates, or predictions of future returns based on the history of past returns, because as all investors hear at least once per day, 'past performance is no guarantee of future results'.

One must be careful to avoid the Gambler's Fallacy - 'the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature).'

2015 was the 7th year in a streak of up years. What does that say about 2016? Sadly, very little of statistical significance.

I wish good luck to all investors.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.